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Geography
With an area of some 3.29 million sq. km,
India is the seventh largest country in the
world. Occupying the major part of the Indian
sub-continent, it has three main topographic
regions - (1) the Himalayas, which extend
along the whole of its northern frontier
with China, Nepal and Bhutan; (2) the fertile
and densely populated Ganges plain; and (3)
the southern peninsula, including the Deccan
plateau.
Demography
India ranks second (after China) in terms
of national population - estimated in 1992
at about 895 million. The level of urbanisation
had reached only about 26% by 1990, though
migration from rural areas is a strong factor
in the continuing growth of major cities.
The principal urban centres are Calcutta
(1981 population, not yet updated, 9.2 million),
Bombay (8.2 million), Delhi (5.7 million),
Madras (4.3 million), Bangalore (2.9 million)
and Hyderabad (2.5 million). Between 1982
and 1989 the annual rate of population growth
stood at about 2.1%. Almost 40% of the population
is under the age of 15 and approximately
30% of the population was estimated by the
Planning Commission to live below the poverty
line.
The total labour force was estimated at 327
million in 1991, of whom 52.3% were engaged
in agriculture, 13.7% in industry and 17%
in service occupations. The literacy rate
was estimated at 52% in 1991 compared to
36% in 1981. There is a large pool of highly
qualified manpower, including approximately
2 million engineers and scientists (as against
120,000 in 1950), 10 million graduates of
all disciplines, and a total of almost 50
million educated to higher secondary level.
A variety of religions are represented in
India, Approximately 83% of the population
are Hindu and 11% are Muslim. There are fifteen
major languages in use, the most widely understood
being Hindi and English.
History and Political Situation
Since independence in 1947, India has been
a democratic republic formed of 25 States
and seven Union territories . Parliament
has two houses: a lower house (House of People)
with 544 members and an upper (Council of
States) with 250 members. All but two members
of the lower house are directly elected for
five year tersm and all but 12 of the upper
house are indirectly elected by representatives
of the States and Union Territories. The
remaining seats are nominated by the President.
Executive power rests with the Prime Minister
and Council of Ministers, who are responsible
to parliament. The system of the government
in the States mirrors the Council Government,
while the Union Territories are directly
administered from the centre.
Indian politics have been dominated since
independence by the Congress Party or Congress
(I) both at State and Central level. In the
late 1980s Congress (I)'s position began
to decline, partly as a result of Rajiv Gandhi's
alienation of former supporters, who have
gone over to the opposition.
The recent political history of India has
been dominated by problems of ethnic and
religious violence and separatist unrest,
expressed most dramatically in the storming
of the Golden Temple in Amritsar (June 1984),
and the subsequent assassination of Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi by a Sikh bodyguard
(October 1984), and by the widespread communal
riots following the demolition of the Ayodhya
Mosque in December 1992.
Rajiv Gandhi, a member of the Nehru dynasty
that has ruled India for all but four years
since independence, succeeded his mother
as Prime Minister and leader of the Congress
party, initially reinforcing his position
in the January 1985 elections but thereafter
losing ground as he proved unequal to the
tasks of political management. His position
was weakened by constant political changes
- frequent cabinet reshuffles, the impact
of defeats in State elections and the Bofors
scandal over commission paid under arms procurement
contracts.
India's adventurous foreign policies, in
particular the transit and trade dispute
with Nepal, the Maldives intervention, the
deployment of the army in Sri Lanka, and
support for the Afghan government against
the Mujahideen: all projections of India
as a regional power, have been inspired mainly
by domestic political considerations. In
1990 India and Pakistan came close to war
over intensifying insurrection by Muslim
secessionists in Indian Kashmir.
In the November 1989 elections, the Congress
(I) party lost its overall majority, but
remained the largest single party with 194
seats in Parliament. The National Front (coalition)
Government led by V.P.Singh (Gandhi's former
Finance Minister) took office, composed of
the Janta Dal with the support of the Communist
parties on the left and the BJP (Bharatiya
Janta Party) on the right. The government
was wracked by constant personal feuds and
eventually Janta Dal split. Amid mounting
communal violence, provoked by increasingly
powerful Hindu militants, a fresh election
was called for May 1991. The assassination
of Rajiv Gandhi, and postponement of much
of the voting, prevented a strong swing to
the BJP that nonetheless gained ground. A
Congress minority government was form on
June 21 under leadership of PV Narasimha
Rao, who succeeded Rajiv Gandhi, but it is
dependent on the support of other parties
for survival.
The new Congress government has moved ahead
with reforms including liberalisation of
industrial controls and foreign investment
regulations, and has initiated the divestment
of shares in state companies, and tax and
subsidy reform. Moreover, with its economy
averaging 5% growth per annum over the last
decade, and with the private sector thriving,
India is rapidly generating a growing base
of urban consumers and successful farmers,
provide the ingredients for sustained expansion.
Economy
The Indian economy has a strong element of
duality. India is among the most industrialised
countries in the world by some measures,
with a high level of indigenous technological
achievement extending into fields such as
nuclear energy, space and satellite communications,
oceanography, deep sea oil drilling and armaments
manufacture. However, agriculture accounts
for approximately 30% of GDP and a much higher
percentage of employment. This sector is
heavily dependent on adequate rainfall during
the monsoon and changes in agricultural output
and incomes have a significant effect on
many areas of the economy.
Between 1951-2 and 1979-80, Indian GDP grew
at a real average annual rate of 3.6%. Since
1981, growth has accelerated to an average
of 5.4% annually demonstrating the growing
diversity and resilience of the Indian economy.
Manufacturing's share of GDP has grown rapidly
from 17.7% in 1981 to 27.0% in 1990. Exports
have grown noticeably over the last five
years, but the Indian economies (and most
large domestic business groups) are focused
on the domestic market; in 1992 exports amounted
to only 6.9% of GDP. India's most developed
industrial sectors are iron and steel, chemicals,
cement, coal mining and textiles. The structure
of Indian industry has changed substantially
and will continue to do so as the economy
is deregulated, as foreign competition and
investment enter the domestic market, and
as income distribution changes. (Consumer
durables, for example, have grown exceptionally
rapidly, in line with rising middle class
purchasing power.
GDP per capita of approximately US$ 350 per
head reflects the economy's agricultural
bias, but India has a substantial urban and
rural middle class, estimated at over 100
million, which supports a growing domestic
market for consumer goods. The prosperity
of this middle class is a product of gradual
decontrol of industry and greater agricultural
wealth resulting from improved husbandry
techniques.
The government still maintains an important
role in the economy through its planning
process and ownership and control of key
sectors (transport, utilities, banking and
insurance, steel and ship building). However,
central budgetary constraints (total reported
budget deficit 1991/92 6.3% of GDP) and the
scale of the infrastructure and basic industry
investment required to support growth are
leading to openings for private sector companies
to participate in new projects in these areas.
Although there are many political and bureaucratic
obstacles, the process gathered new momentum
with the incoming Congress government in
1991. The Rupee was sharply devalued in 1991
and made convertible on the trade account
in order to stimulate exports, and quantitative
restrictions on imports have been abolished,
although tariffs still range up to 85%. India
has the high savings and investment rates
required to generate sustained growth, but
further radical opening and decontrol of
the economy are required to enable India
to match the growth rate of its South East
Asian neighbours and to attract foreign direct
investment. It does, however, have the advantage
of large and active stock markets which are
beginning to contribute significantly to
funding the private sector . The stock market
was partly opened to foreign portfolio investment
in 1992, and this should encourage capital
inflows to help offset India's continuing
balance of payments problems.
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