エマージングマーケット・NIGERIA

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Geography

The Federal Republic of Nigeria is a coastal state on the shores of the Gulf of Guinea with a total land area of 923,768 It borders Benin to the west, Niger to the north, Chad to the north-east, and Cameroon to the east and south-east.

Demography

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with approximately 114 million inhabitants in 1992 (or about one-fifth of the total population of the commitment).The UN Population division estimated a 3.4% population growth rate in mid-1985, one of the highest in Africa. The age structures, with some 48% of the population under 15 years of age, is causing considerable concern, in view of the serious implications for education, job creation and energy consumption. According to UNESCO estimates, the rate of adult literacy in 1990 was 49.3%.

In 1986, the Federal Office of Statistics estimated the labour force at 37 million, of whom about 50% were engaged in agriculture. The distraction between employment and unemployment is not clear in a country in which large numbers of people make a living from small trading and where there is only seasonal employment in rural areas. The Manufacturer's Association of Nigeria(MAN) estimate that 40% of the industrial labour force was laid off in 1984-86. Construction activity halved between 1981 and 1985 and job opportunities contracted sharply after the recession in 1981.

The world bank estimated urban population represented 35% of the total in 1989, growing at 6.2% a year. The national Population Commission of Nigeria reported that Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, had a population of 6 million in 1985. The largest number of densely populated urban centres is found in the south-east of Nigeria where, apart from Lagos, the biggest towns are Ibadan (probably a population of 2 million), Ogbomosho, Oshogbo,Ilorin and Abeokuta. The north Nigeria by contrast has widely scattered population centres and south east has a very high rural population density. Nigeria is one of the world's most ethnically diverse societies, with over 250 identifiable tribal groups. The overwhelmingly of the northern population is Muslim, and Muslims are widely through to comprise more than 50%. Christianity is strong in the south, accounting for about 35% of the total population.

History and Political Situation

Nigeria gained its independence from the UK in 1960 but in the early years maintained a close relationship. The post-independence history of the country has not been peaceful and politics have been dominated by ethnic and regional antagonisms. This has had serious ramifications at all levels and military rule has become the normal means of government.

At independence Nigeria had a federal constitution, with three semi-autonomous regions, northern, eastern, dominated responsibility by Hausa, the Yoruba and Ibo. The three regions and the federation as a whole each had Westminster style parliamentary system. A fourth region, mid-west, was created in 1963. The politics of ethnicity rapidly came to the fore as regionally based political parties struggled for power at the federal level. After much violence and civil war with Biafra from 1967 to 1970, General Jack Gowon, as leader announced a decree dividing Nigeria into twelve states. Reconciliation was helped by the new, more fragmented, twelve states federal structure and by the rapid growth in oil earnings, which together greatly strengthened the central government.

In 1975, after a bloodless coup, General Murtala Mohammed came to power and the numbers of states were increased from 12 to 19. In 1977, under General Obassanjo, a decree was issued whereby all foreign-owned companies were required to have a Nigerian share holding at least 40%, and for some enterprises the proportion sets were 60% and 100%. The policy was designed to spread Nigerian ownership rather than to public control.

In October 1979, the military stepped down and brought in a new civilian system, the second Republic, operating a new constitution and including a US style President, Senate and House of Representatives. With the lifting of the ban on political parties, only 5 out of 40 embryo parties satisfied the rigorous standards set by the Federal Electoral Commission to ensure adequate representation of the whole country. The national Party of Nigeria held power from 1979 until the inconclusive elections of 1983, when a successful military coup brought in General Buhari, a harsh disciplinarian, as head of State. After a further coup in 1985, General Ibrahim Babangida, a prominent member of the Supreme Military Council which renamed AFRC (Armed Force Ruling Council), took over as President. General Babangida has declared a commitment to "open government".

With growing political and economic problems, the Babangida regime's human rights policy slowly gave way to a tougher style of rule, although President Babangida has constantly maintained that his military government will give way to democratic rule in "near future". AFRC created two parties; Social Democratic Party, slightly left of the centre policies; National Republican Convention, Slightly right of the centre policies. However, the transmission to civil rule has not been conducted at the moment.

Babangida now faces a combination of issues that must be resolved if Nigeria's phased return to civilian rule is not to be jeopardised. An over-valued Nira is undermining the country's economic recovery programme; corruption is increasing, in particular in the armed forces and political tensions is increasing, in particular in the armed forces and political tensions are rising, caused in part by a decade of falling living standards and in part by an undercurrent of religious friction between the largely Moslem north and predominantly Christian south.

Economy

Nigeria is potentially one of the richest countries in Africa. At independence it had a flourishing agricultural sector and was a major exporter of cocoa, peanut and palm oil. Between 1950 and 1964, GDP had grown in real terms at an average rate of some 4.5%, while manufacturing's share of GDP had expanded from 1% to 5% over the same period. In the late 1960s and 1970s, Nigeria became an oil-based economy - oil exports rose from $190 million in 1964 to $ 25 billion in 1980. Agricultural exports declined in real terms by some 60% over the same period, while oil's share of GDP rose from 1.3% to 23%. This effortless flow of wealth generated huge increase in corruption and in the public sector. The inflow of oil revenues raised the Naira's exchange rate against the US$, while cumulative inflation between 1964 and 1980 exceeded 400%. Uncontrolled imports of consumer goods related, with ships waiting for months in Lagos harbour to unload cargoes. Local agricultural and manufactured products were unable to remain competitive against exports: agriculture and manufacturing's share of GDP collapsed in the 1960s to 28%, and Nigeria became a net importer of vegetable oils.

The reliance on oil revenues was exacerbated when, encouraged by projections of continually rising oil prices, Nigeria began to borrow abroad. In the second half of the 1980s, as oil prices fell, Nigeria's oil revenues fell from $25 billion to $6 billion. Nigeria was unable to pay its trade or long-term creditors and effectively defaulted on a proportion of its shot-term debt.

General Babangida has come close to negotiating with the IMF and introduced several IMF style austerity measures (notably a large reduction in petroleum product subsidies) in the 1986 budget, incurring public protest. In June 1986, under a structural adjustment plan, " a second tier foreign exchange market (SFEM) was established. This resulted in a substantial currency depreciation and opened the way for IMF agreement and debt rescheduling.

The agreement signed in December 1986 with the "Club of Paris" for the rescheduling of US$ 7.5 billion of the Nigerian external debt was the outcome of the difficult process of negotiation. Even so, the accord gave only partial relief to an economy hard-pressed by the continuing decline in oil prices, by the poor performance of its agricultural sector and by an inadequent level of industrialisation. The Government adopted an austerity package in November 1986, and modified the foreign exchange system in 1987 in an effort to halt the downward plunge of the Naira. Further debt reschedulings were agreed in 1988, with a consortium representing the majority of creditor banks ( US$ 3.25 billion) and with the West German Government.

Also Nigeria installed a radical reform programme, designed to restructure the economy, expand non-oil exports, reduce the import content of locally manufactured goods, achieve self-sufficiency in food, tough demand management policies to ward off the inflationary dangers of large scale devaluation, and the progressive privatisation of numerous parental companies. The period 1988-91 saw a modest economic recovery, initially due to the impact of firming oil prices but then as some beneficial effects of structural adjustment plan began to filter through.

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