エマージングマーケット・PAKISTAN

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Geography

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has an area of 796,085 sq. km. From the mountain border with Afghanistan and India to the North and Northwest, the land shelves down through a series of ranges and arid plateaux to the flood plain of the Indus. Two thirds of the land under cultivation is irrigated - amounting to over 13.5 million hectares, one of the most extensive tracts of irrigation in the world.

Demography

The population at the end of 1992 was estimated at about 117.3 million, of whom 28.3% lived in urban areas. 45% of the population was under 15 years of age with an average annual growth rate of some 3.0%. The principal city Karachi, has approximately 5.1 million inhabitants. Lahore (2.9 million) is the second city, while Islamabad (204,000) is the Federal capital. The bulk of the population is concentrated in the fertile provinces of Sind and Punjab.

Low government spending on education has resulted in a low literacy rate compared with most other Asian countries. UNESCO estimated that the literacy rate was 35.1% in 1990 against 26.2% in 1981. The number of students in higher education increased rapidly from 242,000 in 1972/73 to 658,000 in 1990/91. The total labour force was estimated in 1991/92 at 33.8 million. The participation rate has been steady around 29% in recent years due to the low percentage of women in the labour force. Agriculture accounted for 51.2% of the labour force, manufacturing 12.8%, trade 11.9% construction 6.4% and transport 4.9%. Expected changes that will affect the composition of the labour force are increasing female participation, growing urbanisation, a shift to more capital intensive production methods in industry and agriculture and the declining role of the public sector as an absorber of labour.

Following the 1973 rise in oil prices, large numbers of Pakistanis migrated to the Middle East to work in a variety of manual and service sector occupations. By 1984 it was officially estimated that 2.5 million Pakistanis were working in the Middle East, although unofficial estimates put the figures as high as 4 million, their remittances contributing to Pakistan's balance of payments.

History and Political Situation

The original state of Pakistan was formed out of the partition of British India in 1947, and consisted of two areas, West Pakistan (now Pakistan ) and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), separated by 1,000 miles of Indian territory. For 11 years after its independence, Pakistan continued to be ruled as a dominion, operating under a parliamentary system, during which time no national elections were held. In 1956 the country was declared an Islamic Republic and although Pakistan joined the Commonwealth after independence, its military and economic ties with the USA became progressively stronger.

Following a coup in October 1958, the army commander, General Ayub Khan, appointed himself Chief Martial Law administrator, introduced a new constitution and brought in a presidential system of government. In 1969 he was forced to resign, handing over power to the army under the leadership of General Agha Yahyra Khan, who re-imposed martial law and succeeded in December 1970 in holding the first national elections. In the East, the Awami League, which advocated autonomy, gained the majority vote and in the West, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) under Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto gained victory. When negotiations to form a coalition broke down, after much fighting the eastern province became the independent state of Bangladesh. Following the secession, President Yahyra Khan transferred power to Bhutto who initially became President and later Prime Minister in 1973, when he formed a new constitution.

Under the 1973 constitution, the legislature is bicameral and comprises the National Assembly (Lower House) and the senate (Upper House). The 237 member National Assembly is elected for a five year term, and the Senate for a six year term. The four provinces each have their own governor, appointed by the President. The President must be a Muslim, is head of the Senate and acts in consultation with the Prime Minister who is in turn elected by the National Assembly.

In 1977 General Zia ul Haq and the armed forces took over in a bloodless coup and in 1978 General Zia assumed the Presidency. Martial law was strictly enforced with the dissolution of all political parties and elections were postponed indefinitely. Bhutto was hanged in 1979 on a charge of conspiracy to murder a political opponent. In February 1985 elections were held on a non-party basis, followed by elections to the four Provincial Assemblies and martial law was lifted at the end of 1985. In August 1988 President Zia was killed in a plane crash, almost certainly as a result of sabotage. Zia's death opened the way to all-party elections, held in November 1988.

The PPP led by Miss Benazir Bhutto, the late Prime Minister's daughter secured 93 out of the 217 seats in the National Assembly against 55 for the IJI (Islami Jamhoori Itthad).There were marked differences in the regional distribution of electoral support. Only in Sindh did the PPP have control, but the Punjab, the country's majority province, and North West Frontier Province were controlled by IJI. Miss Bhutto's ministry lasted until August 1990, when she was dismissed by the President, and the National Assembly was dissolved. She was succeeded as prime minister by Ghulan Mustafa as part of a caretaker government until fresh elections were held in October 1990.

IJI won 105 seats in the National Assembly in 1990. Together with the seats won by Muhajir Qaumi Mahaz (MQM) and other allies, the IJI could in theory command the two-thirds majority necessary to amend the constitution. IJI's choice as prime minister, the businessman Nawaz Sharif, was confirmed by the National Assembly. (The PPP suffered its most serious setbacks in Punjab and NWFP, and did not even achieve overall majority in Sindh).

Economy

With short interruptions, economic policy in Pakistan has centred on a series of five year plans. The first three, in the 1950s and 1960s, were primarily designed to assist the economy to develop and grow from its backward state at independence. Agriculture, then as now the largest contributor to GDP, was relatively neglected, the emphasis being on industrialisation and the provision of investment incentives. During this period the economy grew rapidly but the benefits were perceived to go disproportionately to a thin stratum of the population, which was a significant factor in the unrest leading to the downfall of President Ayub Khan.

The fourth plan (1970/1-1974/5) therefore swung the accent to social justice, and an altogether more interventionist approach, but the upheaval following the secession of Bangladesh prevented its implementation. Indeed, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's time as Prime Minister can be regarded as a somewhat ad hoc administration, with a series of annual plans lacking perspective. Increased bureaucratisation and confusion of objectives domestically, combined with the external oil shock and world recession, but surprisingly, some growth, albeit very sluggish, was achieved.

With the change of regime in 1977 five-year planning was restored, the initial aims being to stabilise the economy to restore rapid, balanced growth and to develop backward regions. Private investment - long dormant - was encouraged. Despite the second oil shock and weak prices for Pakistan's principal agricultural exports, the economy grew through the decade to 1988 at around 6.5%, which was close to the planners' target, even though manufacturing output failed to meet expectations, and droughts in some of the later years cut back agricultural exports.

Nevertheless, a number of the long-standing constraints persist, namely the extremely low domestic savings ratio; the narrow and hence vulnerable export base; a tax system that largely exempts the agricultural sector and relies heavily on indirect taxes; and more recently the balance of payments deficit and weakening overseas remittances.

The current plan to run to 1992/93 puts greater emphasis on private investment, with major parts of the public sector to be privatised, including banks, energy and telecommunications, and an increasingly commercial approach by the public sector generally. The IJI government began a major programme of deregulation and liberalised capital flows and moved the rupee towards free convertibility. The target was continued growth in the region of 6.5% annually, but given the structural weaknesses of the Pakistan economy, together with the political fractions, which are restraining private investment, there must be some doubt as to whether this target can be met. The government's room for manoeuvre is also constrained by the need to observe the requirements of the IMF readjustment programme finally agreed early in the life of the Bhutto administration.

While it is intended to revitalise the domestic capital markets, in part through popular capitalism associated with privatisation (more than 70 state owned companies were sold in 1992), there is currently a limited domestic institutional savings base and the present stock exchanges, although active, play only a small role in capital formation.

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