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Geography
The Republic of Peru, the third largest country
in South America after Brazil and Argentina,
is located on the central section of South
America's Pacific coast. Peru is bounded
to the north by Ecuador and Colombia, to
the east by Brazil and Bolivia, to the south
by Chile and to the west by the Pacific Ocean.
Its area is approximately 1,285,200 square
kilometres.
Demography
The population was estimated to be 22.5 million
in mid-1992, growing by about 2.5% per annum.
The urban population is estimated to have
risen from 46% of the total population in
1960 to 69.3% in 1989. The population of
the principal urban centre Lima-Callao was
6.2 million in 1991 compared with 4.7 million
in 1980. Figures purporting to show a breakdown
of the population in to Indian (50%), mestizo
(39%) and white (10%) are suspect. Most of
the Indian population lives in the sierra
region, many of them in Cyllus, or agrarian
villages, dating back to Inca times where
Indian languages are spoken and a primitive
self-sufficient economy exists.
There were 8.5 million students in 1990 and
more than 90% of the relevant age group attend
schools, of which 4.1 million are in primary
schools, 2.0 million in secondary schools
and 743,000 in universities or technical
schools.
The World Bank estimates that the labour
force grew by an average 3% per annum between
1970 and 1980, and projects a 3.1% annual
average increase between 1980 and 2000. Approximately
35% of the population is economically active.
Around 34% of the labour force is engaged
in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 10%
in manufacturing, some 3% in mining and half
in the service sector.
History and Political Situation
By the 1520s the Inca Empire, from its base
in the highlands of southern Peru, Political
Situation held control over the Andes and
the Pacific coast from southern Colombia
to central Chile. In 1532 Francisco Pizarro
invaded the Inca capital Cuzco founding a
new capital in Lima in 1535. The Viceroyalty
of Peru was formally established in 1544
and lasted until 1821 when Peru won its independence
from Spain.
Until 1980 Peru was largely ruled by authoritarian
or military regimes. From 1930 to 1963 the
main motive for military intervention had
been to exclude Alianza Popular Revolucionaria
Americana (Apra) founded by Haya de la Torre.
After 5 years of civilian rule by Belaunde's
first presidency, General Velarco Alvarado
took over by military coup in 1968 introducing
a left-wing military regime whose policies
included radical nationalisation, land reform,
increased government control over natural
resources and worker participation in management
and ownership of companies. Because government
spending and foreign borrowing consequently
surged, the second stage of the military
government, from the bloodless coup of August
1975 which installed General Morales Bermudez
as president until 1980, was dominated by
attempts to cope with external economic crisis.
Since the election of President Fernando
Belaunde Terry of Accion Popular (AP) in
1980, Peru has been ruled by successive democratically
elected governments. Belaunde restored constitutional
rights and political freedom, while attempting
to stimulate the economy by public works
programmes financed with additional foreign
debt. He failed to address the underlying
causes of Peru's growing troubles: inflation,
the collapse of traditional export commodity
prices, terrorism and the drug trade.
On taking power Alan Garcia, who has a strong
social democrat background, introduced a
further set of populist left-wing economic
policies, intended to achieve high growth
rates and increase the living standards of
the poor, while reducing inflation and keeping
a balance between the needs of entrepreneurs
and labour. These won him great short-term
popularity and there was short-lived economic
growth. In 1988 however the country plunged
into its deepest crisis this century and
living standards plummeted. as the government
completely lost economic control and business
and labour defended their interests more
forcefully. As a result, long, expensive
and increasingly violent strikes disrupted
almost all economic activity throughout 1989
and the first half of 1990.
Amid this chaos Alberto Fujimori unexpectedly
won the presidential election in 1990. Soon
after he assumed office in July, he adopted
radical free-market economic policies. But
progress was slow because Fujimori had a
limited power base in Congress. On April
5, 1992 Fujimori dissolved the Congress based
on support from Peru's emerging middle class,
a group of technocrats and the Armed Forces.
Fujimori's domestic and international position
was consolided when his supporters won a
majority in the elections in November 1992
for a Constitutional Congress in place of
the dissolved Congress,. and in the local
elections in January 1993.
Since 1980 the insurgency of the Maoist group,
Sendero Luminoso, has been a growing problem
in Peru. Based in the department of Ayacucho
in the southern highlands, Sendero's subversion
spread to the central Andes and the coca
growing area in the jungle,and then into
cities, mainly Lima and nearby towns. In
September 1992, the government captured Abimael
Guzman the founder and leader of Sendero
Luminoso. Subsequently, almost 20 other high
ranking members of Sendero have been captured.
Since these arrests, the level of terrorist
activity has noticeably decreased, and the
level of surrenders of terrorists under the
government's Amnesty Law has increased.
Economy
From the 1950s onwards Peru pursued a policy
of import substitution-based industrialisation.
Industry grew at a much faster pace than
other sectors, protected by high tariff barriers
and encouraged by expansionary fiscal policies.
Domestic demand responded to increasing levels
of government expenditure and Peru enjoyed
a high rate of overall economic growth. As
industrialisation required foreign exchange
for intermediate and capital goods, a drive
to diversify exports began: the fishmeal
industry developed and, more importantly,
the country embarked on several large-scale
mineral - and later petroleum - projects,
at first financed by direct investment, but
after 1970, by foreign loans.
The period of the first military government
(1969-74) saw an average rate of growth of
5.9%, along with high public spending, heavy
borrowing abroad and increasing overvaluation
of the Sol. After the removal of President
Velasco in 1975, Peru had to come to terms
with the legacies of the early 1970s: large
fiscal deficits, high inflation and substantial
short-term debt repayments. In 1978 the government
had to refinance its external debt and began
a programme of adjustments.
Economic policy during the Belaunde administration
pursued two basic objects: control of inflation
and protection of foreign reserves. The main
fiscal measure was the reduction of subsidies,
but this proved difficult. The country was
hit by bad weather conditions in 1983. and
as a result, the government was forced to
suspend foreign debt repayments and devalued
the currency leading to accelerating inflation.
Following the unilateral reduction in the
service of Peru's external debt decreed by
President Garcia in 1985, the Peruvian economy
experienced a short-lived boom in 1986-7,
financed through monetary expansion and depletion
of international reserves. In 1988, severe
budget deficits and uncontrolled increases
in the money supply led to hyper-inflation.
By July 1990, monthly inflation was running
above 60% and rising sharply, output had
fallen by 25% from its 1988 level, public
investment had dropped significantly, real
domestic liquidity had shrunk to one-sixth
the level of 1985 as a result of the high
rates of inflation, and arrears to external
creditors had increased to 63% of the total
foreign debt.
In August 1990, President Fujimori launched
his economic stabilisation programme aimed
at reducing inflation and creating the conditions
for the recovery of growth. The stabilisation
programme aimed to eliminate the main sources
of hyper-inflation, finance the fiscal deficit
by non-monetary means, and remove the principal
distortions in the economy. The package of
measures introduced by the Fujimori government
constitutes the most coherent structural
economic reform programme under way in Latin
America. A private pension fund system based
on the Chilean model was introduced in July
1993, the most liberal foreign investment
regime in the world has been introduced,
new labour legislation is well under way,
tax collection has increased sharply as a
result of better compliance (albeit from
-% of GDP to -%), and the tax system is being
simplified and structured to encourage investment
and tax consumption. A privatisation programme
is under way, with the aim of transferring
the 50% of Peru's official productive capacity
held by the state in 1990 to private hands
by the end of 1995, and to eliminate the
drain of state enterprises' massive losses
on the government's budget.
Now that the main reforms are complete, they
must begin to embed themselves in the Peruvian
mind, so that the thrust of reform becomes
irreversible. Early indications are that
this is indeed taking place and that entrepreneurs
are beginning to invest in improved facilities
and capacity expansion following three years
of painful recession. Infrastructure spending
is increasing, as multilateral loans and
privatisation proceeds are applied to road,
housing and education. Nonetheless the challenges
are still formidable: tax collection remains
too low for the government to be able to
fund efficient administration and investment
on the scale needed after thirty years of
neglect, the informal sector (estimated to
add 50% to Peru's official GDP) is untaxed,
small-scale and low in productivity, and
Peru must attract substantial foreign savings
to develop in many areas of natural comparative
advantage and to re-focus the economy towards
an export orientation. The reforms are also
intended to reduce the role of the state
in the economy and enhance the development
of the private sector. After a sharp rise
in the consumer price index following initial
deregulatory measures, the rate of inflation
began to decline and economic activity started
to recover towards the end of 1992. Inflation
was reduced from 7482% in 1990 to 56% in
1992.
To finance the government's deficit, Peru
received aid from the U.S. and Japan and
new lending from the IMF with arrears scheduled
to commence in the first half of 1993. The
Fujimori government is privatising many states
owned companies in order to not only reduce
the government's burden but also to finance
the rebuilding of Peru's infrastructure.
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