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Geography
The Portuguese Republic has an area of 92,000
sq.km, including the Azores and Madeira,
of which 36% is agricultural and 39% forestry
(1985).
Demography
In 1992 the population was 9.9 million and
about 32% of the population is urbanised.
The main urban centres are concentrated on
the Atlantic coast around Lisbon, population
2,131,000 and Oporto (1,695,000). The population
growth rate is estimated to be 0.7% a year.
Approximately 4 million Portuguese nationals
live abroad, mostly in France, Brazil, South
Africa and the USA, seeking better employment
and living standards due to the relatively
low level prevailing in Portugal.
Education is compulsory up to the age of
14, but many leave before this and more than
40% of Portuguese children fail to complete
their education. As a result, the illiteracy
rate of 13% is the highest in the EC. Only
one in ten Portuguese school leavers goes
on to higher education, compared with an
EC average of one in three.
In 1990 the labour force totalled 4,716,000
of which 17% were engaged in agriculture,
25% in manufacturing and 8% in construction.
Since 1980 most growth has been in the services
sector, accounting for 45% of the total labour
force. During 1987-91 employment picked up
by 439,000 as the economy expanded.
History and Political Situation
During the 15th century Portual occupied
the centre of the world stage with discoveries
leading to the establishment of an extensive
and wealthy trading empire, beginning with
the opening of a trade route to India by
Bartolemeu Dias in 1487. During the 16th
century the sprawling empire continued to
expand, but from the 17th century the economy
declined steadily.
In the first half of the 18th century, the
discovery of large quantities of gold in
Brazil financed a second period of opulence.
A second empire, replacing that of the dwindling
mercantile empire, was established, based
on exploitation of Brazil's resources. The
Napoleonic invasions led to a weakened monarchy
and subsequently, in 1822, to the declaration
of independence by Brazil.
Republicanism grew more popular in the early
years of this century, culminating in the
assassination of the king and his son in
1908. After a military coup in 1910, the
monarchy was replaced by a republican government.
The following sixteen years were characterised
by governmental instability and a worsening
economy, as Portugal paid a high price for
defending its colonies in the lead up to
the First World War. In 1926 a second military
revolt ended parliamentary rule. From 1928
to 1968 power was placed in the hands of
a civilian Antonio Salazar, who attempted
to establish the "Estado Novo"
adopting anti-liberal and, initially, anti-capitalist
policies. Politically, he wanted to preserve
Portugal as a rural and religious society,
where industrialisation, democracy and other
modernising would be excluded. As the country
continued to under-perform economically,
it was obvious by the 1960s that inward looking
isolation was becoming detrimental. In 1974,
after 6 years of Salazarist government under
Marcero Caetano, support for the regime collapsed
and a military coup was mounted by army officers
and groups representing the majority of the
Portuguese people expressing dissatisfaction
with the continuing wars in Africa.
A revolutionary period began in 1975, and
Portugal has since had 17 governments in
14 years. Up to 1985 the country suffered
continued political instability, and problems
of economic structure and lack of international
competitiveness were left unsolved. Immediately
following the 1974 revolution, military and
civilian leftists nationalised the major
economic sectors, and the colonies were granted
independence. A new Constitution was drafted
by the Constitutional Assembly (but not implemented
until 1982).
Over the next ten years early left-wing policies
were gradually blunted, and the political
mood swung back to the centre. In 1985, Anibal
Cavaco Silbia became leader of the Social
Democrats(PSD) and after the general election
that year formed a military centre right
government relying initially on the support
of the opposition. However, the 1986 presidential
election saw Mario Soares, a former socialist
Prime Minister and leader of the Socialists
(PS), installed as the new President, succeeding
General Ramalho Eanes. In the same year,
with improved economic conditions, Portugal
joined the EC.
In a general election in July 1987, Cavaco
Silva won a four year mandate as Prime Minister
and has presided over a period of exceptionally
rapid change and heady economic growth. The
government, very much dominated by the prime
minister, has initiated various successful
and popular reforms, aimed at encouraging
private enterprise and improving state finances.
These include : reform and simplification
of the tax system and commercial law; liberalisation
and reform of the credit system and the financial
markets; privatisation of the huge state
enterprise sector; and more limited reform
of the labour laws. The government has also
demonstrated competent handling of a massive
physical and human infrastructure investment
programme, inspired and part-financed by
the EC. As a result of these pro-business
measures, foreign investment has grown enormously,
contributing greatly to economic and employment
growth.
Cavaco Silva's impressive economic record
- except on inflation - and his commanding
personality enabled the PSD to unexpectedly
pull off a second convincing win in the October
1991 elections, when the party gained 50.4%
of the vote translating into a 42 seat majority
in the Assembly. The Socialists did better
than the previous time, but not nearly well
enough, while the other parties fared disastrously.
Economy
Following the stagnation of the Salazar years,
then the near chaos in the first years after
the 1974 revolution, which required two interventions
from the IMF and were characterised by violent
swings between growth and recession, the
stable political base since 1985 has ushered
in a period of unprecedented economic progress
and opportunity. Portugal in 1985 was admittedly
starting from a very low base after 50 years
of neglect, and despite the rapid economic
growth of recent years remains the poorest
country in the EC. The young population,
and high agricultural components of the work
force provide a partial explanation.
As in many other developing countries, the
government is undertaking structural reform,
creating a more open economy and expanding
the industrial base. While Portuguese industry
is still largely based on the traditional
textiles, clothing and footwear, cork, wood,
food and wines, there has been heavy investment
in recent years in the chemical, paper, mineral,
electrical and motor component areas, partly
as a result of EC accession, which is swinging
the country away from its image of a low
cost, low technology manufacturer. Hand in
hand with the private sector investment has
been a major push by the government to improve
Portugal's infrastructure. Indeed the government
remains acutely aware of the need to modernise
further and to integrate the economy with
the rest of the EC. With EC help and with
a favourable external background, it has
been dismantling the central controls which
impeded a free market, and as a part of the
process is returning many public sector companies
to private hands. Portugal has been a major
beneficiary of the regional development policies
of the EC, with visible results.
Portugal's still heavy dependence on imports
has led to a structural trade deficit, which
the government attempts to restrain by operating
a crawling peg system of currency depreciation,
based on the inflation differential between
Portugal and her trading partners. As this
has come down to relatively low levels the
rates of depreciation have been quite gentle.
The growth in tourism results in a small
surplus on invisibles, and remittances from
the 4 million Portuguese working abroad allow
the current account to remain in broad balance.
There has been a shift towards the services
sector in the past decade with a corresponding
decline in the contribution of agriculture
to the Portuguese economy. However, in the
last six years or so industry has also done
very well, notably due to foreign investment
in the electronics, automotive and paper
sectors. The dominant and more traditional
textile and clothing sectors have shown a
much more uneven performance, although some
companies have done well. Construction has
regained its important role after shrinking
for many years, due to huge EC related infrastructure
investment, especially in roads, as well
as to much new factory building. Nevertheless,
tourism and textiles remain the economic
mainstays while financial and retail services
are booming. This is due to market liberalisation
and the general modernisation programme under
way.
Portugal continues to outperform most of
the OECD, but serious problems are looming.
By the mid-1990s, when the protection periods
agreed at the time of EC entry in 1986 run
out, Portugal will face crisis in three areas:
agriculture, textiles and retail banking.
All three sections are hopelessly overmanned
and vulnerable to external competition (from
outside the EC in the case of textiles).
However, rapid investment has been under
way for the last five years and is likely
to continue. EC structural adjustment funds
are making a visible difference to Portugal's
infrastructure, and this flow is expected
to continue at a high rate for the remainder
of the decade. Indeed, the sums requiring
investment - about $ 10 million per day -
are running at a level which it may be difficult
to spend efficiently. Nevertheless, the heavy
investments in infrastructure and productivity,
together with private sector investment,
should allow Portugal a good chance to adjust
between now and 1999, the planned latest
date for European Economic and monetary Union.
In the shorter-term, the demise of the ERM
has permitted a rapid fall in Portuguese
interest rates, which must be regarded as
a positive development in accelerating the
flow of investment projects.
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