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Geography
The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and
Asia, 97% in Asia (the Anatolian plateau)
and 3% in Europe (Eastern Thrace) covering
a land area of 780,576 sq.km. of which 32%
is arable and 26% forested. Turkey's coastline
faces three seas (Black, Aegean and Mediterranean)
and stretches 8,000 km, while her strategic
location between Europe and Asia is evident
from her neighbours which comprise Bulgaria,
Greece, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Georgia and Armenia.
Demography
A 1992 estimate put the population at 58.6
million. The population growth rate of 2.4%
since 1985 is high in European terms. Once
overwhelmingly rural, about 59% of Turkey's
population now lives in towns; Istanbul has
a population of 6,620,000 and Ankara (the
capital) 3,462,999. The population is almost
entirely Muslim, with up to 20% belonging
to Shia sects, and some 20% Kurdish speakers
(mainly Sunni Muslims).
There has been a strong emphasis on technical
and vocational education in recent years.
In general, teaching standards are well below
European standards in most of the country.
Despite this, literacy rate is probably around
85%. There is a civilian labour force of
around 19.1 million which will continue to
grow rapidly. In 1990, OECD figures suggested
that approximately 49% of employment was
still in agriculture, 15.4% in industry with
5.2% and 30% in construction and services
respectively.
History and Political Situation
The Turkish republic was established from
the ruins of the Ottoman Empire in 1923,
with Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk) as its first
president. Considering the fighting against
European powers which preceded the republic
it was remarkable that Ataturk insisted in
aligning Turkey firmly with the West in the
modernisation programmes which followed.
More remarkable was the formal creation in
1928 of a secular state out of a country
whose population was (and is) about 98% Islamic.
This development followed the replacement
of Islamic law, dress and Arabic Alphabet
with European substitutes.
A belief in the desirability of a secular
state (and in the role of the armed forces
as the ultimate means of preserving it) appears
still to be held by the vast majority of
Turks - or at least those in relatively advanced
central and western parts of the country.
In the more primitive, rural and indeed semi-feudal
east and south-east matters are more problematic.
The South East Anatolian (GAP) irrigation
project is an effort to integrate this region
of Turkey with the rest of the country in
economic, and ultimately, in cultural terms.
The military took over rule in 1982 from
a minority conservative government led by
Mr. Demirel. In 1983, democratic rule (with
certain restrictions) was re-established,
with a government formed by Mr.Ozal's Motherland
Party (ANAP). In 1987, ANAP rule was confirmed
by general election. Thereafter ANAP became
identified with high inflation and the resultant
unacceptably inequitable distribution of
incomes which emerged by 1988. In consequence
ANAP suffered a humiliating reversal in the
local elections in March 1989, where its
share of the popular vote fell to 22%, in
third place after the Social Democratic Populist
Party's 28% and the True Path Party's 25%.
Mr. Ozal was elected President in November
1989 as successor to Kenan Everen. The government's
failure to bring down inflation cost it much
of its initial popularity. Ozal's election
to the Presidency also affected the Motherland
Party's fortunes, since his two successors
as prime minister, Yildirim Akbult (November
1989 - June 1991) and Mesut Yilmaz (June
- November 1991), failed to make their mark
with the electorate. After the early general
elections in October 1991, the party was
driven into second place behind the True
Path headed by Demirel.. In May 1993, Demirel
became President after the death of Ozal,
and Mrs Tansu Ciller has subsequently become
Prime Minister.
The Kurdish minority probably accounts for
about 15% of the total population, and is
distinguished from the Turkish ethnic majority
by language but not religion. Over the last
few years, and especially since 1990, the
Kurdish question has grown into what is probably
Turkey's major domestic political problem,
and the main threat to law and order.
The break up of the USSR removed what was
previously the major threat to Turkey's security,
but has brought new problems as well as opportunities
in its wake. The Turks feel a cultural affinity
with the Muslim peoples of the Transcaucasus
and Central Asia (all of whom, except for
the Tajiks, speak languages related to Turkish),
and the present leaders of the new republics
also claim that they wish to follow the Turkish
model of secular democratic politics and
a market economy, rather than the Islamic
model represented by Iran. The Turkish government
is active in promoting its cultural and political
influences in the region, and Turkish traders
and other businessmen are interested in developing
new markets to their east.
Turkey has also taken the lead in forming
a Black Sea Economic Corporation Region,
which includes all the other Black Sea states
(that is Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia
and Georgia) as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan,
although neither of the last two has a coastline
on the Black Sea. As yet, its main significance
is political: although there has been talk
of the eventual construction of a formal
free trade zone, easier trade seems the most
realistic goal at present.
Economy
Whilst official economic data are an unreliable
guide to reality, since they exclude the
black economy and include evasive statistics
from the State Economic Enterprises, they
do highlight a key feature (and key problem)
of Turkey - namely that too much of the economy
is in the public sector: on published figures
half of GDP and three-quarters of industrial
output is in state hands.
The public sector, including the State Economic
Enterprises (SEE's), has traditionally had
recourse via the Treasury to the Central
Bank for funds to finance deficits as well
as investment programmes. Not unnaturally,
easy access to almost unlimited funding has
encouraged abuses and removed incentives
for proper planning of investment by the
SEEs, which have suffered from low levels
of productivity and lack of proper financial
controls. The money printed to finance the
SEEs and the major programme of infrastructure
development which began in 1983 had a predictable
effect on inflation, but the 75% rate hit
in 1988 appeared to have finally awoken the
Turks to the impossibility of continuing
to run the economy in this way. Political
arguments continue to rage about how change
should be made, but all agree it is necessary.
The broadly favoured solution is privatisation,
and this process has already begun. The two
key problems are the extremely poor financial
condition of many SEEs and the shortage of
private sector capital relative to the amount
of the economy which needs privatising. The
obvious solution to the latter problem is
to tap foreign capital, and this is being
done in a limited way - caution is necessary,
however, in that surrendering control of
Turkish assets to foreigners is not universally
popular. A major step forward was taken in
August 1989 when the Turkish stock market
was opened to foreign investors in a much
more dramatic fashion than had been envisaged
up to only a few months previously.
Besides privatisation, the government has
been introducing other measures to improve
economic performance : these include improving
the convertibility of the currency, granting
independence to the Central Bank (in theory
at least) and making concerted efforts to
improve the statistical database to integrate
the real economy with monetary data.
Change will be neither smooth nor easy, but
it is underway and will permit Turkey to
exploit more fully its competitive advantages
of a low-cost, hard working labour force
that is strategically well positioned to
supply goods to Europe as well as the Middle
Eastern countries and former COMECON nations.
The assault on public sector inefficiencies
is being accompanied by entrepreneurial development
in the private sector which should lead to
continued supply of investment opportunities.
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